Prediction of Epidemic Trends in COVID-19 with Mann-Kendall and Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis

Novel coronavirus also known as COVID-19 was first discovered in Wuhan, China by end of 2019. Since then, the virus has claimed millions lives worldwide. In 29th April 2020, there were more than 5,000 outbreak cases Malaysia reported Ministry Health (MOHE). This study aims to evaluate trend analysis using Mann-Kendall test, and predict future Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis (RF-SSA) model. The RF-SSA model developed measure daily for coming 10 days previously-confirmed cases. A Singular Analysis-based forecasting that discriminates noise a time series is introduced. assessment based on World Organization (WHO) official data confirmed after until 9th May, 2020. preliminary results test showed declining pattern new during Restricted Movement Order (RMO) 3 compared RMO1, RMO2 RMO4, with dramatic increase RMO1. Overall, over-forecasted 0.36%. indicates RF-SSA’s competence impending number proposed predicted would hit single digit cased early-June These findings have proven capability apprehending high accuracy. Nevertheless, enhanced algorithm should be higher effectivity capturing any extreme changes.